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☆ The Perils of the Fed’s Vast Bond Holdings
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-03 | by ( Jeff Sommer | More About Jeff Sommer | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +2 min

But even after two years of quantitative tightening, the amount of bonds and securities that the Fed still retains is stupendous. Quantitative tightening is a perilous operation. Earlier attempts — notably, in 2019 — disrupted financial markets. The slow pace of quantitative tightening is partly responsible for the Fed’s inability to contribute to the national budget. That’s because the Fed has also raised interest rates, which move in the opposite direction of bond prices.

Persons: — Organizations: Fed, Treasury, Silicon Valley Bank Locations: United States

☆ With Inflation This High, Nobody Knows What a Dollar Is Worth
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-26 | by ( Jeff Sommer | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

But exactly how inflation is hurting, helping and confusing people is hard to understand. There’s a fancy name for the common human failure to see past the gaudy prices largely created by inflation. This widespread inability to recognize what money is really worth is known as money illusion. Irving Fisher, a Yale economist, wrote a book about it nearly a century ago. But their insights tend to be forgotten when prices are fairly stable, as they were in the United States until three years ago.

Persons: you’re, Irving Fisher, John Maynard Keynes Organizations: Yale Locations: British, United States

☆ Some Older Women Need Extra Breast Scans. Why Won’t Medicare Pay?
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-19 | by ( Roni Caryn Rabin | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Mammograms can miss tumors in women with dense breast tissue. So for these patients, doctors often include a second scan — ultrasound, for example, or an M.R.I. Though many women see the extra scan as a routine form of prevention, Medicare won’t pay for it, and some patients are left to pick up a hefty tab. But the clinic’s staff said that while her mammogram would be fully covered by Medicare, a so-called supplemental ultrasound was not. “I just don’t understand how something that has been the recommended diagnostic test for years is suddenly not covered by Medicare,” she said.

Persons: Mammograms, Joellen Sommer, Sommer, “, ” Organizations: Medicare Locations: Manhattan

☆ Inflation, Interest Rates and Oil Prices Have Jolted the Markets
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-19 | by ( Jeff Sommer | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

The dollar has strengthened and there are new reasons to worry about a steep increase in the price of oil. Behind many of these changes are two familiar culprits: inflation and interest rates. The possibility of a widening conflict in the Middle East — and of rising oil prices feeding into inflation in the United States — surfaced again on Friday when Israel struck Iran. But consider this: For the first three months of 2024, U.S. stocks rose relentlessly, while bonds posted modest gains, amid expectations of a series of cuts in the short-term interest rates controlled by the Federal Reserve. Now, successive months of high inflation readings have dashed those hopes — or, at the very least, deferred them.

Persons: Bonds, Israel Organizations: Federal Reserve Locations: United States, Iran

☆ Trump or Biden? The Stock Market Doesn’t Care.
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-12 | by ( Jeff Sommer | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

The markets assume that former President Donald J. Trump has an even chance of winning the November election. After trailing for months, President Biden has moved slightly ahead of Mr. Trump in the betting on Predictit, the longest-running commercial prediction market in the United States. On Betfair, a robust British prediction market that is officially closed to U.S. residents, Mr. Biden has moved within one percentage point of Mr. Trump. Polymarket, an offshore market that accepts only cryptocurrency, shows Mr. Trump slightly ahead. “The prediction markets right now are telling us that the presidential election is basically a tossup,” said Eric Zitzewitz, a Dartmouth economist.

Persons: Donald J, Trump, Biden, ”, Eric Zitzewitz, “ Organizations: Dartmouth Locations: United States

☆ Norwegian Cruise Line CEO on why they are 'the biggest growth story' in the cruise sector
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-09 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailNorwegian Cruise Line CEO on why they are 'the biggest growth story' in the cruise sectorHarry Sommer, CEO of Norwegian Cruise Line, joins CNBC's 'The Exchange' to discuss Norwegian's new ship order, travel trends, and more.

Persons: Harry Sommer Organizations: Cruise, Norwegian Cruise

☆ Is it last orders for London’s nightlife?
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-06 | by ( Anna Cooban | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +9 min

London CNN —It’s Thursday, 11.00 p.m., and on a street in London’s Soho district, there’s a loud clatter. “People haven’t got the money,” she told CNN. “That’s when their bills started coming through, the first heating bills from the winter,” he told CNN. Even before the ravages of the pandemic, the number of London’s nightlife venues was in steady decline. They don’t just go out for the sake of going out now,” she told CNN.

Persons: London CNN —, Lesley Lewis, haven’t, ”, Michael Kill, Grazyna, ” Kill, “, —, that’s, Kill’s, Jeremy Joseph, Freddie Mercury, ” Joseph, Jack Henry, Henry, Lutz Leichsenring, Fabian Sommer, Leichsenring, London’s, Sadiq Khan, Amy Lamé, Lamé, Khan, Lamé “, Charlie Fenemer, It’s, Becky Lam, Lam, ” Chris Lau Organizations: London CNN, Staff, CNN, Time Industries Association, York Minister, London, “, ”, German Commission, UNESCO, United Nations, Office, National Statistics, City Hall, Labour, Shady Locations: London’s Soho, London, Wales, Soho , London, Hoxton, London’s, Berlin, “ Berlin, Hong Kong, Soho, Hong, Beijing

☆ The Market May Have Finally Hit a Real Record, But It Could Be a Problem
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-05 | by ( Jeff Sommer | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

It’s been a splendid run for the market — so emphatically great that in just the first three months of the year, the S&P 500 climbed to record highs on 22 separate days. But what most reports and commentary haven’t pointed out is that because inflation has also climbed sharply over the last few years, the value of stock prices has eroded, along with nearly everything else in the economy. When you factor in inflation, the stock market did not actually reach new heights. That’s finally changing, with the market’s gains outpacing the ravages of inflation sufficiently to push real stock valuations close to a new peak, according to calculations by Robert J. Shiller, the Yale professor and Nobel laureate in economics. In a phone conversation, he said, “On a monthly, inflation-adjusted basis, it does appear that the S&P 500 now is right around a record high.”

Persons: It’s, Robert J, Shiller, “, ” Organizations: Yale

☆ Germans celebrate as recreational cannabis use becomes legal
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-01 | by ( Jack Guy | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

CNN —Crowds gathered in Germany overnight to celebrate the legalization of cannabis starting from Monday. Adults can now cultivate up to three cannabis plants for private consumption. From July 1, cannabis will be available in licensed not-for-profit clubs with no more than 500 members – all of whom would have to be adults. The German government said that cannabis would remain illegal for minors and highly restricted for young adults, adding that consuming the drug near schools and playgrounds would be illegal. The move makes Germany the third country in Europe – after Malta and Luxembourg – to legalize the drug for recreational use, removing cannabis from the official list of banned substances.

Persons: Fabian Sommer, Karl Lauterbach, it’s, – Organizations: CNN Locations: Germany, Berlin, Europe –, Malta, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Australia

☆ Those Billion-Dollar Lottery ‘Jackpots’ Aren’t Even Half That Big
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-29 | by ( Jeff Sommer | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

The advertised jackpots aren’t nearly as big as they look. And Powerball says its current jackpot is $935 million. These lottery grand prizes are a fortune, no doubt about that. But truth be told, those mouthwatering advertised jackpot numbers aimed at tempting people to buy tickets are misleading. Thanks to the magic of rising interest rates, the advertised numbers have swelled, while the real value of the current lottery prizes isn’t even half that much.

Locations: United States, New Jersey

☆ If Nvidia Keeps Rising Like This, It Will Be Bigger Than the Global Economy
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-15 | by ( Jeff Sommer | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

It’s not a household name quite yet, but anyone who follows the stock market knows at least a little about Nvidia. The company is the wonder of the year, a stock by which all others are measured. Nvidia designs the chips that make artificial intelligence work, and because A.I. is being hailed as the most important technological development since the internet, Nvidia shares have been rocketing since last year. will one day become, but I do pay close attention to the stock market, which values Nvidia at more than $2.2 trillion, making it the third-largest public company in the world behind Microsoft and Apple.

Persons: It’s, I’m Organizations: Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, Meta, AMD, Taiwan Semiconductor, Intel

☆ What History and Economics Suggest About Biden-Trump, Round 2
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-08 | by ( Jeff Sommer | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Politics and economics have always been intertwined, often in ways that were mystifying in real time. The polls show that many Americans perceive this contest with the distress reserved for root canals or colonoscopies. Democrats tend to view Mr. Trump as a villain who has committed serial misdeeds that include plotting to overturn the results of the last presidential election. At the same time, many Trump supporters see Mr. Biden as a doddering tax-and-spend political hack. The prospect of this dreaded rematch sent me back to the history books, and to economic and markets data, looking for precedents and parallels.

Persons: Biden, Donald J, Trump, Mr, —

☆ ‘Rust’ Armorer Convicted of Manslaughter in Alec Baldwin Shooting
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-06 | by ( Julia Jacobs | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

The armorer who put a live round into the gun that Alec Baldwin was rehearsing with on the set of the film “Rust” in 2021 when it went off, killing the cinematographer, was found guilty of involuntary manslaughter on Wednesday. The conviction of the armorer, Hannah Gutierrez-Reed, marks the first time a jury has weighed in at trial on the fatal shooting of the cinematographer, Halyna Hutchins. After the verdict was read, prosecutors asked that Ms. Gutierrez-Reed be taken into custody and the judge, Mary L. Marlowe Sommer, agreed. A court officer led Ms. Gutierrez-Reed out of the courtroom, not in handcuffs. Mr. Baldwin is also facing a charge of involuntary manslaughter and is scheduled to stand trial in July.

Persons: Alec Baldwin, Hannah Gutierrez, Reed, Halyna Hutchins, Ms, Gutierrez, Mary L, Marlowe Sommer, Baldwin

☆ The Core of the Tax Code Will Change, but We Don’t Know How
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-02 | by ( Jeff Sommer | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Navigating the byzantine U.S. tax rules and completing your return may be enough of a headache. But you can count on fresh tax stress coming from Washington not far down the road. On Dec. 31, 2025, critical parts of the 2017 federal tax law are scheduled to expire. As if that weren’t complicated enough, the tax code before the 2017 law included provisions for future inflation adjustments — and there has been a lot of inflation over the last few years. These adjustments need to be applied if the law sunsets, as scheduled, making the actual numbers for important things like federal tax brackets difficult to estimate.

Persons: Trump Locations: Washington

☆ Norwegian Cruise Line reports first profitable year since 2019
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-27 | by ( Laya Neelakandan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The Norwegian Viva is docked at PortMiami's Terminal B ahead of its christening ceremony on Nov. 29, 2023, in Miami. Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings on Tuesday reported its first profitable year since 2019 as fourth-quarter losses narrowed dramatically. The cruise company reported strong growth and ticket demand with an encouraging 2024 forecast. Adjusting for one-time items, Norwegian reported a loss per share of 18 cents. "Norwegian Cruise Line Holding experienced a momentous year of growth and achievement in 2023," CEO Harry Sommer said in a statement.

Persons: Harry Sommer, it's, LSEG Organizations: Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings, Norwegian, Cruise Line, Royal Caribbean Cruises, Carnival Corp Locations: Norwegian, Miami, LSEG, Gaza

☆ Andreas Brehme, who won the 1990 World Cup for West Germany, dies aged 63
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-20 | by ( Ben Morse | Nadine Schmidt | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

Later that year, a unified German soccer team was formed following the country’s unification. Lothar didn’t fancy it [in the 1990 World Cup final]. He was part of the team which finished runner-up in the 1986 World Cup and runner-up in the 1992 European Championships. Andy was our World Cup hero, but for me he was much more than that – he was my close friend and companion to this day. “In 1990 he fired the German national team to the World Cup title with his penalty and became a football legend.

Persons: ” Andreas Brehme –, –, Brehme, ” Brehme, Franz Beckenbauer, West, FourFourTwo, “, ”, Rudi, Völler, Lothar, Matthäus, Lothar didn’t, “ Andreas Brehme, Bernd Neuendorf, Mario Götze, Gerd Müller, Helmut Rahn, Andreas Brehme –, Andreas ’, Andy, Ciao Andi, Otto Rehhagel, Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer, Sebastian Widmann, ” Kaiserslautern Organizations: CNN, West, Bayern Munich, Argentina, FIFA, FourFourTwo, Bundesliga, FC Kaiserslautern –, Italian Serie, Inter Milan, German Football Association, DFB, Kaiserslautern, Bavarian, Internazionale, UEFA, ” Inter, Real Zaragoza, Devils, German, FCK Locations: West Germany, Rome, German, Italian, Brehme, Italy, Spain, Kaiserslautern

☆ January Was Awesome for Stock Pickers, but Can They Keep It Going?
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-16 | by ( Jeff Sommer | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Over the last 20 years, stock pickers have had a dismal record. In some periods, stock pickers rule, and the start of this year was one of those times. The S&P 500 and other stock indexes set records during the month. It was that active stock funds did even better, though not by much, beating various market indexes by less than a percentage point, on average. That happened to be the best calendar year for stock pickers in decades.

Organizations: Bank of America

State District Judge Mary Marlowe Sommer was stern with her warning during a virtual hearing, saying the start of the trial next week would not be delayed. The judge added that she reviewed the texts in question and that they were not material to Bowles' legal strategy. The upcoming trial is expected to revolve around the question of how live rounds ended up on the set. Authorities during their investigation recovered recovered six live rounds, including the round that killed cinematographer Halyna Hutchins and wounded director Joel Souza. Defense attorneys said during Wednesday's hearing that they have “plenty of evidence" that it was somebody else who put those live rounds on the set.

Persons: Alec Baldwin, Mary Marlowe Sommer, Hannah Gutierrez, Reed, ” —, Jason Bowles, ”, ” Bowles, Gutierrez, Bowles, Halyna Hutchins, Joel Souza, armorer Hannah Gutierrez, Baldwin, “ Organizations: SANTA FE, Prosecutors, Authorities, New Locations: SANTA, New Mexico, Albuquerque

☆ IBM Reopens Its Frozen Pension Plan, Saving the Company Millions
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-09 | by ( Jeff Sommer | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Traditional pension plans haven’t come back. Last month, IBM thawed out a defined benefit pension plan that it had froze more than 15 years ago. These moves are startling, because, on the surface, at least, IBM seems to be reversing a decades-long trend of corporations moving away from traditional pension plans. IBM’s new approach is significant because the company has been a leader in employee benefit policymaking. In fact, IBM’s new pension plan isn’t nearly as generous to long-tenured employees compared with its predecessor.

Persons: haven’t Organizations: IBM

☆ Mideast Crisis Biden Criticizes Opposition to Bill That Includes Aid to Israel and Gaza
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-07 | by ( Erica L. Green | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +7 min

Some of the dead were killed inside Israel on Oct. 7. At least three hostages were killed by the Israeli military during its ground operations. Only one hostage has been freed by an Israeli military rescue operation. The Israeli military’s assessment did not conclude that any of the dead hostages were killed in Israeli strikes. But some of the hostages freed in November have said that they fear those still in Gaza could be killed in Israeli salvos.

Persons: Israel, “, ”, Daniel Hagari, Benjamin Netanyahu’s, Gadi, Liat Bell Sommer, ” Ms, Sommer, Avi Kalo, Kalo, Sahar Kalderon, Johnatan Reiss, Aaron Boxerman, Gabby Sobelman, Sheikh Ahmad Organizations: Hamas, The New York Times, Tuesday, Times, Qatar — Locations: Gaza, Israel, Egypt, Qatar, United States

☆ These small male marsupials give up sleep for sex, then die after intense mating season, study finds
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-25 | by ( Hafsa Khalil | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

Scientists based in Australia have found that mouse-sized male antechinus trade sleep to leave more time for reproductive activities during mating season, with one male who was monitored halving his sleep time during that period. Non-breeding dusky antechinus spend an average of 15.3 hours of the day asleep, according to the researchers. “Sleep restriction in breeding male antechinus is likely to be an adaptive behavioral response driven by strong sexual selection,” the paper said. To study the semelparous marsupials, researchers examined two antechinus species: dusky antechinus (Antechinus swainsonii) and wild agile antechinus (Antechinus agilis) both captive and wild. Lesku said researchers would next like to examine how male antechinus deal with restricting their sleep for three weeks.

Persons: ” Erika Zaid, ”, Erika Zaid, Francesca Leonard, Zaid, John Lesku, antechinus, ” Lesku, Erika Zaid “, Volker Sommer, ” Sommer, Lesku Organizations: CNN, La Trobe University, “, University College London Locations: Australia, Melbourne

☆ The Market Has Had a Fabulous Run, but This Peak Doesn’t Really Matter
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-20 | by ( Jeff Sommer | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: 1 min

If you’ve been in the stock market for a while, congratulations. Now that the market has reached a new peak, you’ve probably made some money. The S&P 500 on Friday surpassed the peak it reached on Jan. 3, 2022. After a miserable performance in 2022, the stock market had a fabulous run. If you are a long-term investor, this particular market peak isn’t likely to matter.

Persons: you’ve

☆ Crypto Funds Have Arrived. But Who Needs Them?
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-19 | by ( Jeff Sommer | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Exchange-traded funds come in many shapes and sizes. Some are plain vanilla, diversified index funds that let you invest in the entire stock and bond markets, and are excellent core holdings for the great majority of people. Then there are the quirky, narrowly focused E.T.F.s like the Inverse Cramer Tracker, which enables you to bet against the stock picks of the CNBC television host Jim Cramer. The fund is legal, approved by the Securities and Exchange Commission — and a money-loser since its inception last year. Betting against Jim Cramer just isn’t a great investing strategy.

Persons: Jim Cramer, Bitcoin, legitimizing Organizations: CNBC, Securities and Exchange Commission Locations: Bitcoin

☆ After a Rip-Roaring 2023, the Markets Are Taking a Breather
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-13 | by ( Jeff Sommer | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

It was a great year for the stock market and for the vast majority of investors in workplace retirement accounts. Even after the 2023 gains, most stock investors are only barely above water since the start of 2022. Even so, the paltry stock market increases haven’t kept up with inflation. It was arguably even worse than 2008, when the stock market collapsed during the great financial crisis. In 2022, bonds declined sharply in value as interest rates rose, while during the financial crisis, investment-grade bonds rallied as interest rates declined.

Persons: let’s, haven’t Organizations: Federal Reserve Locations: U.S

☆ Don’t Put Your Eggs in One Basket. That Investing Principle Still Holds.
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-01 | by ( Jeff Sommer | More About Jeff Sommer | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

I’m talking about the 60/40 portfolio, which has sometimes been considered the living heart of investing. They are merely a convenient starting point for thinking about investing and not an exact, general-purpose prescription for everyone. While it’s more complicated, it comes down to this: Don’t keep your eggs in one basket. Diversification in investing is as important now as it ever was, even if it hasn’t paid off lately. If you held a broad portfolio of stocks and bonds in 2022 — whether your mix was 60/40 or some other variant — you probably lost money.

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